Monday, October 17, 2005

The video iPod

It's not quite there yet, and I won't buy one until the screen is at least twice at large. Which is doable if Apple moves the scroll wheel to the back or makes it virtual, but there are problems with either approach. They'd probably have to think of something different, though.

But the impact of this device might be huge in spite of all the criticisms: podcasting and time shifting TV shows will be big. And there is always podporn, so look out for men in trenchcoats staring at their iPods on the L. Of course they could also just watch last Sunday's sermon. And imagine all of us stylish women being able to catch up on fashion podcasts before getting off at Needless Markups.

So, who will pay $1.99 for 45 minutes of Desperate Housewives? The people who pay $2 for a 30 second ring tone, 99 cents for a 3 minute song, and $50/month for Comcast. And I would shell out $10 for enough shows to watch on a transatlantic flight.

The current video on the iPod is not there yet, but the next one will revolutionize the way we watch--mark my words. (and Mark Cuban's)

I might be wrong and the pros might be right, but as Mark said on Slashdot, their track recordis less than impressive:

Original iPod 2001
"No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame."
"Too expensive ($400)"
"Can't use regular batteries"
"No PC support"
"No Games"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Second generation 10/20 gig iPods 2002 (PC support)
"Too expensive"
"Can't use regular batteries"
"The 10 gig will cannibalize 20 gig sales"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Third generation 10/15/30 gig iPods 2003 w/ITMS and docking
"Too expensive"
"No one wants to buy just one song"
"Not enough titles in ITMS"
"10 gig will cannibalize 15 gig sales"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod mini 4 gig (end of 2003)
"Too expensive" ($249)
"It's ugly"
"Will cannibalize iPod sales"
"Not enough storage"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Fourth generation 20/40 gig iPod 2004 (Clickwheel)
HP Branded iPod
iPod Photo (40/60 gig)
U2 black iPod (October)
"Too expensive" ($299/$399, $499/$599 for photo)
"HP will cannibalize Apple sales"
"No one wants little photos on an iPod"
"Black iPod is ugly"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod Shuffle 2005
Second generation iPod mini 4/6 gig
"One gig shuffle is too expensive" ($149)
"No screen"
"4 gig mini will cannibalize Shuffle sales"
"6 gig mini will cannibalize iPod sales"
"Shuffles will cannibalize mini sales"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod nano 2005 (September)
"Too expensive" ($199/$249)
"Should have kept the mini"
"Will cannibalize iPod sales"
"No one will buy the Shuffle now"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod with Video Playback 30/60 gig (October 2005)
"Too expensive" ($299/$399)
"No one wants little videos"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

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